Cats Vs Sooners Preview

Somehow, some way, Kentucky just keeps finding a way to win.

After back-to-back 35-34 overtime thrillers against South Carolina and LSU, the No. 15 Wildcats take their four-game winning streak on the road Saturday night for one of the most intriguing games of the SEC weekend: Kentucky at Oklahoma.

Kentucky enters at 5-1 overall and 3-1 in the SEC in Will Stein's first season as head coach. Oklahoma is just 3-2 overall and 1-1 in conference play, but those numbers don't tell the entire story. The Sooners are coming off a stunning 27-24 win over previously No. 1 Texas in the Red River Rivalry.

In other words, both teams walk into this matchup believing they just proved something.

Kentucky has already beaten two AP top-10 opponents this season. Oklahoma just knocked off the No. 1 team in the country. Now they meet under the lights in Norman with Kentucky trying to continue one of the most exciting starts to a season in recent program history.

This is a fascinating statistical matchup because these teams have won in very different ways. Kentucky owns the more productive offense, while Oklahoma has been carried by one of the better defenses the Wildcats have seen.

Kentucky is averaging 414.2 yards and 34.7 points per game. Oklahoma is surrendering only 266.8 yards and 17.6 points per game. Something has to give. The Wildcats have the advantage on the ground statistically, averaging 181.8 rushing yards per game, but the Sooners are allowing only 116.8.

One of the biggest reasons Kentucky is 5-1 has been the play of quarterback Kenny Minchey.

Minchey is 120-of-178 and has thrown only one interception all season. In the win over LSU, he completed 23 of 36 passes for 246 yards and then delivered the biggest play of the night with his legs — the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime.

Against an Oklahoma defense capable of creating negative plays, that ball security could be critical. Oklahoma has recorded 15 sacks through five games, so Kentucky's protection and Minchey's ability to stay patient will be tested.

Kentucky's ability to run the football might be its best chance to control this game.

CJ Baxter leads the Wildcats with 484 rushing yards, eight touchdowns and a 5.6-yard average. He was outstanding against LSU, running for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries. His 77-yard run on Kentucky's first offensive play immediately changed that game.

And Baxter isn't alone. Jason Patterson has 361 yards on just 47 attempts — an impressive 7.7 yards per carry — with three touchdowns.

Kentucky is averaging 181.8 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma's offense, by comparison, is averaging only 95.8.

Freshman receiver Kenny Darby leads Kentucky with 29 receptions for 401 yards and three touchdowns. His 13.8-yard average gives Minchey a legitimate downfield option.

Willie Rodriguez has added 28 catches, while DJ Miller, Nic Anderson and the Kentucky tight ends give Minchey several other options. Kentucky's tight ends have combined for 44 catches through six games, giving the Wildcats ways to attack the middle of the field if Oklahoma takes away the outside receivers.

The Sooners' 3-2 record is unusual for a program with Oklahoma's talent, but they've played a difficult schedule. Their two losses came on the road against Michigan and Georgia, while their three victories include last week's dramatic upset of Texas.

Veteran quarterback John Mateer has completed 90 of 135 passes for 1,038 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions. His two most productive receiving options have been Isaiah Sategna III and tight end Rocky Beers.

Running back Lloyd Avant leads Oklahoma with 236 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He was at his best against Texas, gaining 72 yards on 10 carries and scoring the Sooners' only offensive touchdown of the second half.

Oklahoma's 27-24 victory over Texas was impressive, but it wasn't a dominant offensive performance.

The Sooners finished with only 238 total yards — 155 passing and 83 rushing — and converted only 2 of 13 third downs. Oklahoma scored one touchdown on a blocked punt and another when Peyton Bowen returned an interception 42 yards for a touchdown.

That is an enormous warning for Kentucky: do not let Oklahoma's defense and special teams score points. Make the Sooner offense drive the length of the field.

Kentucky's defensive yardage numbers aren't spectacular. The Wildcats are allowing 382.2 yards and 28 points per game.

But there is one statistic that jumps off the page: turnover margin.

Kentucky is plus-seven for the season and has intercepted seven passes while throwing only one. Oklahoma, meanwhile, enters the game at minus-four.

The Wildcats also held LSU to only 94 rushing yards last week and forced two turnovers without giving the ball away themselves.

Linebacker Grant Godfrey has become the leader of the defense with 52 tackles, an average of 8.7 per game. He had 10 against LSU.

This might be the most important hidden statistic of the entire matchup.

Kentucky has converted only 26.9% of its third downs. Oklahoma isn't much better offensively at 30.3%.

The difference is Oklahoma's defense. Opponents have converted just 22.7% of their third downs against the Sooners. Kentucky cannot continually put itself in third-and-long situations and expect to survive.

Believe it or not, this will be only the fourth meeting ever between Kentucky and Oklahoma.

Oklahoma leads the series 2-1. The Sooners won 29-7 in Norman in 1980 and 29-8 in Lexington in 1982.

But Kentucky owns the most famous victory in the series.

In the 1951 Sugar Bowl, Bear Bryant's Wildcats defeated No. 1 Oklahoma 13-7, snapping the Sooners' remarkable 31-game winning streak.

Saturday will be Kentucky's first trip to Norman since that 1980 meeting and the first Kentucky-Oklahoma game since the Sooners joined the SEC.

Kentucky doesn't need to play a perfect game to win in Norman.

The Wildcats have been considerably more productive offensively than Oklahoma. They run the ball better. They've protected the football better. They have a quarterback who has thrown 11 touchdowns against one interception. And they've already shown that playing on the road against a highly ranked opponent doesn't scare them after beating No. 9 Texas A&M.

Oklahoma's defense is very good, but its offense has been inconsistent. If Kentucky can force Oklahoma to sustain long drives rather than allowing defensive touchdowns, special-teams scores and short fields, the Wildcats should have an opportunity deep into the fourth quarter.

And if this game is close in the fourth quarter? At this point, who really wants to bet against the Cardiac Cats finding another way?

This feels like a very different Kentucky football team than the one that walked off the field after the loss to Alabama.

Since then, the Wildcats have won four straight. They've gone on the road and beaten a top-10 Texas A&M team. They've survived overtime at South Carolina. They've beaten top-10 LSU. Twice in two weeks they've faced a do-or-die two-point conversion in overtime — and twice they've walked off the field celebrating.

Now comes Norman.

Oklahoma's defense will be one of the biggest challenges Kentucky has faced. The crowd will be hostile. The Sooners will be playing with renewed confidence after knocking off No. 1 Texas.

But Kentucky isn't arriving as a team hoping it can compete. The Wildcats are 5-1, ranked No. 15 in the country, 3-1 in the SEC and carrying the confidence of a team that has repeatedly found a way when the game was on the line.

Saturday night should tell us even more about just how special Will Stein's first Kentucky team might be.